ort of troops and munitions sailing under a neutral
flag.

In estimating the effect on England of the unrestricted U-boat
warfare, there will be not only the question of hindering the
transport of provisions, but also of curtailing the traffic to
such a degree as would render it impossible for the English to
continue the war. In Italy and in France this will be felt no less
severely. The neutrals, too, will be made to suffer, which,
however, might serve as a pretext to bring about peace.

America will hardly push matters further than breaking off
diplomatic relations; we need not, therefore, count for certain on
a war with the United States.

It must not be overlooked that the United States--as was the case
in regard to Mexico--are not well prepared for war, that their one
anxiety is Japan. Japan would not allow a European war with
America to pass unheeded.

But even if America were to enter the war it would be three to
four months before she could be ready, and in that space of time
peace must have been secured in Europe. According to the estimate
of certain experts (among others, some Dutch corn merchants),
England has only provisions sufficient for six weeks, or three
months at the outside.

It would be possible to carry on the U-boat warfare on England
from fifteen bases in the North Sea, so _that the passage of a
large vessel through to England would be hardly conceivable_.
Traffic in the Channel, even if not entirely stopped, would be
very limited, as travelling conditions in France exclude the
possibility of suitable connection.

And if the unrestricted U-boat warfare once were started, the
terror caused by it (the sinking of the vessels without warning)
would have such an effect that most vessels would not dare to put
to sea.

The above already hints at the rejoinder to be put forward to the
arguments advanced by us against the opening of the unrestricted
U-boat warfare, and also combats the view that the corn supply
from the Argentine is not at the present moment so important for
the United States as would be a prompt opening of the U-boat
campaign, which would mean a general stoppage of all traffic.

The fact that America would not be ready for war before the end of
three months does not exclude the possibility that it might even
be as long as six or eight months, and that she therefore might
join in the European war