t to the co-operation of the
Central and Western States that are opposed to war, and to the
Irish and Germans. These considerations, together with the
Entente's insulting answer to President Wilson's peace proposal,
do not point to the probability of America plunging readily into
war.

These, in brief, are the points of view on which the German demand
for the immediate start of the unrestricted U-boat warfare is
based, and which caused the Imperial Chancellor and the Foreign
Affairs Department to revise their hitherto objective views.

Both the Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Hungarian
Prime Minister pointed out what disastrous consequences would
ensue from America's intervention, in a military, moral,
agricultural and financial sense, and great doubt was expressed of
the success of a blockade of England. Count Czernin held that the
Germans overlooked the possibility of lowering the consumption in
England, taking into consideration the fact that since the war
consumption in the countries of the Central Powers had been
reduced by half. Further, Count Czernin referred to the very vague
and by no means convincing data of the German naval authorities.
It was also debated whether a continuation of the U-boat war to
the present extent (the destruction on an average of 400,000 tons
per month) would not be more likely to achieve the desired end,
and if it were not more advisable not to play our last and best
card until all other means had been tried. The possibility of
being able to start a ruthless U-boat warfare hung like a
Damocles' sword over the heads of our adversaries, and would
perhaps be a more effectual means of ending the war than the
reckless use of the U-boat as a weapon of war, carrying with it
the danger of an attack by the neutrals. If the effect expected by
Germany was not realised, which was within the bounds of
possibility, we must be prepared to see the desire for war in the
enemy greatly intensified. However that may be, the vanishing of
the desire for peace must be accepted as an established fact.
Finally, it was pointed out that the arguments recently put
forward by the Germans show a complete _novum_, namely, the danger
on the Western front in view of the great Anglo-French offensive
that is expected. Whereas formerly it was always said that the
attacks of the enemy would be repulsed, it is now considered
nece