ssia must be exploited, and
that a fresh tentative offer for peace must be put forward at a
time when both political and military initiative are still in our
hands. Count Czernin estimates a suitable time will be in two or
three months, when the enemy offensive will be at an end. As a
matter of fact, in view of the French and English expectations of
the decisive success for their offensive, and the Entente not
having lost all hopes of Russia resuming her activities, any too
pronounced preparations for peace would not only be doomed to
failure, but would put new life into the enemy by revealing the
hopeless exhaustion of the Central Powers' forces. At the present
moment a general peace could only be bought by our submission to
the will of the enemy. A peace of that nature would not be
tolerated by the people and would lead to fatal dangers for the
Monarchy. It appears to me that quiet determination and caution as
regards the outer world are more than ever an imperative
necessity. The development of affairs in Russia has hitherto been
favourable for us. Party disputes are kept more and more within
the narrow limits of peace and war questions by political,
economic and social exigencies, and the impression grows every day
that the party which makes for peace with the Central Powers will
be the one to remain in power. It is our solemn duty carefully to
follow and encourage the process of development and disruption in
Russia and to sound the country, not with too obvious haste, but
yet with sufficient expert skill to lead to practical peace
negotiations. The probability is that Russia will avoid any
appearance of treachery towards her Allies, and will endeavour to
find a method which will practically lead to a state of peace
between herself and the Central Powers, but outwardly will have
the appearance of the union of both parties as a prelude to the
general peace.

As in July, 1914, we entered regardlessly into a loyal alliance
with Austria-Hungary, in like manner when the world war is at an
end will a basis be found for terms which will guarantee a
prosperous peace to the two closely united Monarchies.

This optimistic reply of Bethmann's was obviously not only based on
the idea of infusing more confidence in the future in us, but was also
the true expression of a more favourable atmosphere prevailing, as
Berlin naturally received the same reports from