ated type, the
present increased numbers of the vessels offer a safe guarantee of
success.

February 1 is suggested on the part of the Germans as the date on
which to start the unrestricted U-boat warfare and also to
announce the blockade of the English coast and the west coast of
France. Every vessel disobeying the order will be torpedoed
without warning. In this manner it is hoped to bring England to
reason within four months, and it must here be added that Admiral
von Holtzendorff _expressis verbis_ guaranteed the results.

As regards the attitude to be taken by the neutrals, leading
German circles, although aware of the danger, hold optimistic
views. It is not thought that either the Scandinavian countries or
Holland will interfere with us, although, in view of the
possibility of such happening, military precautions have been
taken. The measures taken on the Dutch and Danish frontiers will,
in the opinion of the Germans, hold those countries in check, and
the possibility of sharing the fate of Roumania will frighten
them. Indeed, it is expected that there will be a complete
stoppage of all neutral shipping, which in the matter of supplies
for England amounts to 39 per cent. of the cargo space. Meanwhile
concessions will be granted to the neutrals by fixing a time limit
for the withdrawal of such of their vessels as may be at sea on
the opening day of the U-boat warfare.

With regard to America, the Germans are determined, if at all
possible, to prevent the United States from attacking the Central
Powers by adopting a friendly attitude towards America (acting
upon the proposals made at the time of the _Lusitania_ incident),
but they are prepared for and await with calmness whatever
attitude America may adopt. The Germans are, nevertheless, of the
opinion that the United States will not go so far as making a
breach with the Central Powers. If that should occur, America
would be too late and could only come into action after England
had been beaten. America is not prepared for war, which was
clearly shown at the time of the Mexican crisis; she lives in fear
of Japan and has to fight against agricultural and social
difficulties. Besides which, Mr. Wilson is a pacifist, and the
Germans presume that after his election he will adopt a still
more decided tendency that way, for his election will not be due
to the anti-German Eastern States, bu