in slightly different form, came
from France. It was stated that in Paris great war-weariness was
noticeable. All hope of definite victory was as good as given up; an
end must certainly come before the beginning of winter, and many of
the leading authorities were convinced that, if war were carried on
into the winter, the result would be as in Russia--a revolution.

At the same time, news came from Constantinople that one of the enemy
Powers in that quarter had made advances for a separate peace. The
Turkish Government replied that they would not separate from their
Allies, but were prepared to discuss a general peace on a basis of
non-annexation. Talaat Pasha notified me at once of the request and
his answer. Thereupon nothing more was heard from the enemy Power. At
the same time news came from Roumania evincing great anxiety
concerning the increasing break-up in Russia, and acknowledging that
she considered the game was lost. The revolution and the collapse of
the army in Russia still continued.

Taken altogether, the outlook presented a more hopeful picture for us,
and justified the views of those who had always held that a little
more "endurance"--to use a word since become ominous--would lead to a
decision.

During a war every Minister of Foreign Affairs must attach an
important and adequately estimated significance to confidential
reports. The hermetic isolation which during the world war divided
Europe into two separate worlds made this doubly urgent. But it is
inevitable in regard to confidential reports that they must be
accepted, for various reasons, with a certain amount of scepticism.
Those persons who write and talk, not from any material, but from
political interests, from political devotion and sympathy, are, from
the nature of the case, above suspicion of reporting, for their own
personal reasons, more optimistically than is justified. But they are
apt to be deceived. Nations, too, are subject to feelings, and the
feelings of the masses must not be taken as expressing the tendencies
of the leading influences. France was tired of war, but how far the
leading statesmen were influenced by that condition, not to be
compared to our own war-weariness, was not proved.

In persons who make this _metier_ their profession, the wish is often
present, alongside the comprehensible mistakes they make, to give
pleasure and satisfaction by their reports, and not run any risk of
losing a lucrative post. I think it