both attacks. If this succeeds--and I
reckon it can be done in two or three months--we must then, before
America takes any further military action to our disadvantage,
make a more comprehensive and detailed peace proposal and not
shrink from the probably great and heavy sacrifices we may have to
make.

Germany places great hopes on the U-boat warfare. I consider such
hopes are deceptive. I do not for a moment disparage the fabulous
deeds of the German sea heroes; I admit admiringly that the
tonnage sunk per month is phenomenal, but I assert that the
success anticipated and predicted by the Germans has not been
achieved.

Your Majesty will remember that Admiral Holtzendorff, when last in
Vienna, told us positively that the unrestricted U-boat warfare
would bring England to her knees within six months. Your Majesty
will also remember how we combated the prediction and declared
that, though we did not doubt the U-boat campaign would seriously
affect England, yet the looked-for success would be discounted by
the anticipated entry of America into the war. It is now two and a
half months (almost half the time stated) since the U-boat warfare
started, and all the information that we get from England is to
the effect that the downfall of this, our most powerful and most
dangerous adversary, is not to be thought of. If, in, spite of
many scruples, Your Majesty yielded to Germany's wish and
consented to allow the Austro-Hungarian Navy to take part in the
U-boat warfare, it was not because we were converted by the German
arguments, but because Your Majesty deemed it to be absolutely
necessary to act with Germany in loyal concert in all quarters and
because we were firmly persuaded that Germany, unfortunately,
would never desist from her resolve to begin the unrestricted
U-boat warfare.

To-day, however, in Germany the most enthusiastic advocates of the
U-boat warfare are beginning to see that this means to victory
will not be decisive, and I trust that the mistaken idea that
England within a few months will be forced to sue for peace will
lose ground in Berlin too. Nothing is more dangerous in politics
than to believe the things one wishes to believe; nothing is more
fatal than the principle not to wish to see the truth and to fall
a prey to Utopian illusions from which sooner or later a terrible
awakening will follow.

England, the motive powe