ts against the
U-boat warfare_.

Baron Flotow will have occasion to meet the Secretary of State
this afternoon.

I had sent Baron Flotow, a Chief of Department, to Berlin at the same
time, in order that he might support all Hohenlohe's efforts and spare
no pains to induce Germany to desist from her purpose.

Flotow sent me the following report on January 15:

After a two-days' stay in Berlin my impression is that the
question of the unrestricted U-boat warfare has again been brought
to the front by the leading men in the German Empire. This
question--according to Herr Zimmermann--under conditions of the
greatest secrecy where the public is concerned, is now under
debate between the heads of the Army and Navy and the Foreign
Office; they insist on a decision. For if the unrestricted U-boat
warfare is to be opened it must be at a time when, in view of the
vast impending Anglo-French offensive on the Western front, it
will make itself felt. The Secretary of State mentioned the month
of February.

I wish in the following account to summarise the reasons put
forward by the Germans for the justification of the unrestricted
U-boat warfare:

Time is against us and favours the Entente; if, therefore, the
Entente can keep up the desire for war there will be still less
prospect of our obtaining a peace on our own terms. The enemy's
last Note to Wilson is again a striking example of their war
energy.

It will be impossible for the Central Powers to continue the war
after 1917 with any prospect of success. Peace must, therefore,
unless it finally has to be proposed by the enemy, be secured in
the course of this year, which means that we must enforce it.

The military situation is unfavourable owing to the impending
Anglo-French offensive, which, it is presumed, will open with
great force, as in the case of the last offensive on the Somme. To
meet the attack, troops will have to be withdrawn from other
fronts. Consequently, an offensive against Russia with intent to
bring that enemy to his knees, which perhaps a year ago would have
been possible, can no longer be reckoned on.

If, therefore, the possibility of enforcing a decision in the East
becomes less and less, an effort must be made to bring it about in
the West, and to do it at a time when the unrestricted U-boat
warfare would affect the coming Anglo-French offensive by impeding
the transp