worn to the revolutionary colours, or follow a blind
anti-progressive policy which seems to them best to meet their
interests. The former, at least, would only make use of a war to promote
their own revolutionary schemes, as they did in the crisis of the
Russo-Japanese War. Under the circumstances, there can be little idea of
a united outburst of the national spirit which would enable an offensive
war to be carried on with persistent vigour. There has been an
extraordinary change in the conditions since 1812, when the people
showed some unanimity in repelling the invasion. Should Russia to-day be
involved in a Western war with Germany and Austria, she could never
bring her whole forces into play. In the first place, the revolutionary
elements in the heart of the State would avail themselves of every
weakening of the national sources of power to effect a revolution in
internal politics, without any regard for the interests of the
community. Secondly, in the Far East, Japan or China would seize the
moment when Russia's forces in the West were fully occupied to carry out
their political intentions towards the Empire of the Czar by force of
arms. Forces must always be kept in reserve for this eventuality, as we
have already mentioned.

Although Russia, under the present conditions, cannot bring her whole
power to bear against Germany and Austria, and must also always leave a
certain force on her European Southern frontier, she is less affected by
defeats than other States. Neither the Crimean War nor the greater
exertions and sacrifices exacted by her hard-won victory over the Turks,
nor the heavy defeats by the Japanese, have seriously shaken Russia's
political prestige. Beaten in the East or South, she turns to another
sphere of enterprise, and endeavours to recoup herself there for her
losses on another frontier.

Such conditions must obviously affect the character of the war. Russia
will certainly put huge armies into the field against us. In the wars
against Turkey and Japan the internal affairs of the Empire prevented
the employment of its full strength; in the latter campaign
revolutionary agitation in the army itself influenced the operations and
battles, and in a European war the same conditions would, in all
probability, make themselves emphatically felt, especially if defeats
favoured or encouraged revolutionary propaganda. In a war against
Russia, more than in any other war, _c'est le premier pas qui coute_.