Orkney Isles has been enlarged into a cruiser station. These are
measures so directly and obviously directed against us that they demand
an inquiry into the military position thus created.

The English have only considered the possibility of a German war since
1902. Before that year there was no idea of any such contingency, and it
is therefore not unnatural that they are eager to make up for lost time.
This fact does not alter the hostile character of the measures and the
circumstance that the English preparations for war are exclusively
directed against Germany.

We must therefore--as the general position of the world leads us to
believe--reckon on the probability of a naval war with England, and
shall then have to fight against an overwhelming superiority. It will be
so great that we cannot hope for a long time to be able to take the
offensive against the English fleet. But we must contemplate the
possibility of becoming its master in one way or another, and of winning
the freedom of the seas, if England attacks us. We shall now discuss
this possibility. On this matter I am expressing my personal views only,
which are not confused by any technical naval knowledge, and rest
exclusively on general military considerations, in which our presupposed
antagonists can, and will, indulge quite as well as myself. I shall not
betray any secrets of the Admiralty, since I do not know any. But I
consider it expedient that the German people should clearly understand
what dangers threaten from England, and how they can be met.

In the view of these dangers and the circumstance that we are not strong
enough to entertain any idea of provoking a battle, the question
remains, What are the means of defensive naval strategy to secure
protection from a superior and well-prepared enemy, and gradually to
become its master?

The plan might be formed of anticipating the enemy by a sudden attack,
instead of waiting passively for him to attack first, and of opening the
war as the Japanese did before Port Arthur. In this way the English
fleet might be badly damaged at the outset of the real hostilities, its
superiority might be lessened, and the beginning of the effective
blockade delayed at least for a short time. It is not unthinkable that
such an attempt will be made. Such an undertaking, however, does not
seem to me to promise any great success.

The English have secured themselves against such attacks by
comprehensive works of defence