wever, very unlikely that England would tolerate such
communications through neutral territory, since in that way the effect
of her war on our trade would be much reduced. The attempt to block
these trade routes would approximate to a breach of neutrality, and the
States in question would have to face the momentous question, whether
they would conform to England's will, and thus incur Germany's enmity,
or would prefer that adhesion to the German Empire which geography
dictates. They would have the choice between a naval war with England
and a Continental war with their German neighbours--two possibilities,
each of which contains great dangers. That England would pay much
attention to the neutrality of weaker neighbours when such a stake was
at issue is hardly credible.

The ultimate decision of the individual neutral States cannot be
foreseen. It would probably depend on the general political position and
the attitude of the other World Powers to the Anglo-German contest. The
policy adopted by France and Russia would be an important factor. One
can easily understand under these circumstances that the Dutch are
seriously proposing to fortify strongly the most important points on
their coast, in order to be able to maintain their neutrality on the sea
side. They are also anxious about their eastern frontier, which
obviously would be threatened by a German attack so soon as they sided
with our enemies.

I shall not enter further into the political and military possibilities
which might arise if Holland, Belgium, and Denmark were driven to a
sympathetic understanding by the war. I will only point out how
widespread an effect the naval war can, or rather must, exercise on the
Continental war and on the political relations generally. The attitude
of Denmark would be very important, since the passage to and from the
Baltic must mainly depend on her. It is vital to us that these
communications be kept open, and measures must be taken to insure this.
The open door through the Belt and the Sound can become highly important
for the conduct of the war. Free commerce with Sweden is essential for
us, since our industries will depend more and more on the Swedish
iron-ore as imports from other countries become interrupted.

It will rest with the general state of affairs and the policy of the
interested nations whether this sea route can be safeguarded by
diplomatic negotiations, or must be kept open by military action. We
cannot all