rlin, about Africa and the Bagdad Railway, were
continued between them through the Ambassadors; and just before the war
the draft of an extensive treaty had been agreed on.

Then, after an interval of two years, came a time of extreme anxiety. No
one had better opportunities than I of watching Sir Edward's
concentration of effort to avoid the calamity which threatened. For he
was living with me in my house in Queen Anne's Gate through the whole of
these weeks, and he was devoting himself, with passionate earnestness of
purpose, to inducing the German Government to use its influence with
Austria for a peaceful settlement. But it presently became evident that
the Emperor and his Ministers had made up their minds that they were
going to make use of an opportunity that appeared to have come. As I
have already said, I think their calculations were framed on a wholly
erroneous basis. It is clear that their military advisers had failed to
take account, in their estimates of probabilities, of the tremendous
moral forces that might be brought into action against them. The
ultimate result we all know. May the lesson taught to the world by the
determined entry of the United States into the conflict between right
and wrong never be forgotten by the world!

Why Germany acted as she did then is a matter that still requires
careful investigation. My own feeling is that she has demonstrated the
extreme risk of confiding great political decisions to military
advisers. It is not their business to have the last word in deciding
between peace and war. The problem is too far-reaching for their
training. Bismarck knew this well, and often said it, as students of his
life and reflections are aware. Had he been at the helm I do not believe
that he would have allowed his country to drift into a disastrous
course. He was far from perfect in his ethical standards, but he had
something of that quality which Mommsen, in his history, attributes to
Julius Caesar. Him the historian describes as one of those "mighty ones
who has preserved to the end of his career the statesman's tact of
discriminating between the possible and the impossible, and has not
broken down in the task which for greatly gifted natures is the most
difficult of all--the task of recognizing, when on the pinnacle of
success, its natural limits. What was possible he performed, and never
left the possible good undone for the sake of the impossible better;
never disdained at least to