f the country, and the issue would be doubtful.
But if either country should consider itself compelled to declare
war, the other, if free at the time, might see her opportunity to
declare war simultaneously. The result would be the same as if
we fought Great Britain, except that our Pacific coast would be
blockaded besides the Atlantic, and we should have to pay indemnity
to two countries instead of to one country.

A coalition between these two countries would be an ideal arrangement,
because it would enable each country to force us to grant the conditions
it desires, and secure a large indemnity besides.

Would Great Britain interfere in our behalf? This can be answered
by the man so wise that he knows what the international situation
and the commercial situation will be ten years hence. Let him speak.

WILL THE IMPORTANCE OF NAVAL POWER INCREASE OR DECREASE?

It is clear that the importance to a country of a navy varies with
two things--the value of that country's foreign trade and the
probability of war.

It is also clear that, other things being equal, the probability
of a country becoming involved in war varies as the value of her
foreign trade; because the causes of friction and the money at
stake vary in that proportion.

Therefore, _the importance to a country of her navy varies as the
square of the value of her foreign trade_.

In order to answer the question, therefore, we must first consider
whether foreign trade--sea trade--is going to increase or decrease.

As to the United States alone, the value of our exports is about
ten times what it was fifty years ago, and it promises to increase.
But the United States is only one country, and perhaps her increase
in foreign trade has been due to conditions past or passing. So
what is the outlook for the future, both for the United States
and other countries? Will other countries seek foreign trade?

Yes. The recent commercial progress of Germany, Argentina, and
Japan, shows the growing recognition by civilized and enterprising
countries of the benefits of foreign trade, and of the facilities
for attaining it which are now given by the advent of large, swift,
modern steamers; steamers which are becoming larger and swifter
and safer every year, more and more adapted for ocean trade. For
not only have the writings of Mahan brought about an increase in
the sea power of every great country; but this increase has so
aroused the attention of the engineering p