ould pass the crisis
successfully. But no physician could say that his patient could stand
it for one week, a month or a year more. The doctor would have to
gamble upon that man's nerves. He would have to stimulate him daily,
perhaps hourly.

So it is with the German nation. The country is on the verge of a
nervous breakdown. Men and women, business men and generals, long ago
lost their patience. They are under-nourished. They are depressed,
distressed, suffering and anxious for peace. It is as true of the
Hamburg-American Line directors as it is true of the officers at the
front.

There have been more cases of nervous breakdowns among the people
during the last year than at any time in Germany's history. There have
been so many suicides that the newspapers are forbidden to publish
them. There have been so many losses on the battlefields that every
family has been affected not once, but two, three and four times.
Dance halls have been closed. Cafes and hotels must stop serving meals
by 11 o'clock. Theatres are presenting the most sullen plays. Rumours
spread like prairie fires. One day Hindenburg is dead. Two days later
he is alive again.

But the Kaiser has studied this war psychology. He and his ministers
know that one thing keeps the German people fighting--their hope of
ultimate victory; their belief that they have won already. The Kaiser
knows, too, that if the public mind is stimulated from day to day by
new victories, by reports of many prisoners, of new territory gained,
of enemy ships torpedoed, or by promises of reforms after the war, the
public will continue fighting.

So the Kaiser gambles from day to day with his people's nerves. For
two years he has done this, and for two years he has been supported by
a 12,000,000-man-power army and a larger army of workers and women at
home. The Kaiser believes he can gamble for a long time yet with his
people.

Just as it is impossible for a physician to say how long his patient
can be stimulated without breaking down, so is it impossible for an
observer in Germany to say how long it will be before the break-up
comes in Germany.

Many times during the war Germany has been on the verge of a collapse.
President Wilson's ultimatum after the sinking of the Sussex in the
English Channel brought about one crisis. Von Falkenhayn's defeat at
Verdun caused another. The Somme battle brought on a third. General
Brusiloff's offensive against the Austr