her tremendous and
unlimited moral influence behind the Allies and with the Russian people.

Rear Admiral Hollweg's calculations that 24,253,615 tons of shipping
remained for the world freight transmission at the beginning of 1917,
did not take into consideration confiscation by the United States of
nearly 2,500,000 tons of German and Austrian shipping in American
ports. He did not expect the United States to build 3,000 new ships in
1917. He did not expect the United States to purchase the ships under
construction in American wharves for neutral European countries.

The German submarine campaign, like all other German "successes," will
be temporary. Every time the General Staff has counted upon "ultimate
victory" it has failed to take into consideration the determination of
the enemy. Germany believed that the world could be "knocked out" by
big blows. Germany thought when she destroyed and invaded Belgium and
northern France that these two countries would not be able to "come
back." Germany thought when she took Warsaw and a great part of
western Russia that Russia would not he able to continue the war.
Germany figured that after the invasion of Roumania and Servia that
these two countries would not need to be considered seriously in the
future. Germany believed that her submarine campaign would be
successful before the United States could come to the aid of the
Allies. German hope of "ultimate victory" has been postponed ever
since September, 1914, when von Kluck failed to take Paris. And
Germany's hopes for an "ultimate victory" this summer before the United
States can get into the war will be postponed so long that Germany will
make peace not on her own terms but upon the terms which the United
States of Democracy of the Whole World will dictate.

One day in Paris I met Admiral LeCaze, the Minister of Marine, in his
office in the Admiralty. He discussed the submarine warfare from every
angle. He said the Germans, when they figured upon so many tons of
shipping and of supplies destroyed by submarines, failed to take into
consideration the fact that over 100 ships were arriving daily at
French ports and that over 5,000,000 tons of goods were being brought
into France monthly.

When I explained to him what it appeared to me would be the object of
the German ruthless campaign he said:

"Germany cannot win the war by her submarine campaign or by any other
weapon. That side will win which holds out one