ations to the Governments
concerned, but is to be a computed figure calculated on the basis of the
scales in force in France at the date of the Treaty's coming into
operation. This method avoids the invidious course of valuing an
American or a British life at a higher figure than a French or an
Italian. The French rate for Pensions and Allowances is at an
intermediate rate, not so high as the American or British, but above the
Italian, the Belgian, or the Serbian. The only data required for the
calculation are the actual French rates and the numbers of men mobilized
and of the casualties in each class of the various Allied Armies. None
of these figures are available in detail, but enough is known of the
general level of allowances, of the numbers involved, and of the
casualties suffered to allow of an estimate which may not be _very wide_
of the mark. My guess as to the amount to be added in respect of
Pensions and Allowances is as follows:

British Empire $ 7,000,000,000[106]
France 12,000,000,000[106]
Italy 2,500,000,000
Others (including United States) 3,500,000,000
---------------
Total $ 25,000,000,000

I feel much more confidence in the approximate accuracy of the total
figure[107] than in its division between the different claimants. The
reader will observe that in any case the addition of Pensions and
Allowances enormously increases the aggregate claim, raising it indeed
by nearly double. Adding this figure to the estimate under other heads,
we have a total claim against Germany of $40,000,000,000.[108] I believe
that this figure is fully high enough, and that the actual result may
fall somewhat short of it.[109] In the next section of this chapter the
relation of this figure to Germany's capacity to pay will be examined.
It is only necessary here to remind the reader of certain other
particulars of the Treaty which speak for themselves:

1. Out of the total amount of the claim, whatever it eventually turns
out to be, a sum of $5,000,000,000 must be paid before May 1, 1921. The
possibility of this will be discussed below. But the Treaty itself
provides certain abatements. In the first place, this sum is to include
the expenses of the Armies of Occupation since the Armistice (a large
charge of the order of magnitude of $1,000,000,000 which under another
Article of