still in hand.

Out of this, and out of exports of goods, and payments in kind under the
Treaty prior to May, 1921 (for which I have not as yet made any
allowance), the Allies have held out the hope that they will allow
Germany to receive back such sums for the purchase of necessary food and
raw materials as the former deem it essential for her to have. It is not
possible at the present time to form an accurate judgment either as to
the money-value of the goods which Germany will require to purchase from
abroad in order to re-establish her economic life, or as to the degree
of liberality with which the Allies will exercise their discretion. If
her stocks of raw materials and food were to be restored to anything
approaching their normal level by May, 1921, Germany would probably
require foreign purchasing power of from $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000
at least, in addition to the value of her current exports. While this is
not likely to be permitted, I venture to assert as a matter beyond
reasonable dispute that the social and economic condition of Germany
cannot possibly permit a surplus of exports over imports during the
period prior to May, 1921, and that the value of any payments in kind
with which she may be able to furnish the Allies under the Treaty in the
form of coal, dyes, timber, or other materials will have to be returned
to her to enable her to pay for imports essential to her existence.[126]

The Reparation Commission can, therefore, expect no addition from other
sources to the sum of from $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 with which we
have hypothetically credited it after the realization of Germany's
immediately transferable wealth, the calculation of the credits due to
Germany under the Treaty, and the discharge of the cost of the Armies of
Occupation. As Belgium has secured a private agreement with France, the
United States, and Great Britain, outside the Treaty, by which she is to
receive, towards satisfaction of her claims, the _first_ $500,000,000
available for Reparation, the upshot of the whole matter is that Belgium
may _possibly_ get her $500,000,000 by May, 1921, but none of the other
Allies are likely to secure by that date any contribution worth speaking
of. At any rate, it would be very imprudent for Finance Ministers to lay
their plans on any other hypothesis.

3. _Annual Payments spread over a Term of Years_

It is evident that Germany's pre-war capacity to pay an annual foreign
tribute has