a lower figure. For leaving out
of account sequestered Allied securities and investments in Austria,
Russia, etc., what blocks of securities, specified by countries and
enterprises, can Germany possibly still have which could amount to as
much as $1,250,000,000? I cannot answer the question. She has some
Chinese Government securities which have not been sequestered, a few
Japanese perhaps, and a more substantial value of first-class South
American properties. But there are very few enterprises of this class
still in German hands, and even _their_ value is measured by one or two
tens of millions, not by fifties or hundreds. He would be a rash man, in
my judgment, who joined a syndicate to pay $500,000,000 in cash for the
unsequestered remnant of Germany's overseas investments. If the
Reparation Commission is to realize even this lower figure, it is
probable that they will have to nurse, for some years, the assets which
they take over, not attempting their disposal at the present time.

We have, therefore, a figure of from $500,000,000 to $1,250,000,000 as
the maximum contribution from Germany's foreign securities.

Her immediately transferable wealth is composed, then, of--

(_a_) Gold and silver--say $300,000,000.

(_b_) Ships--$600,000,000.

(_c_) Foreign securities--$500,000,000 to $1,250,000,000.

Of the gold and silver, it is not, in fact, practicable to take any
substantial part without consequences to the German currency system
injurious to the interests of the Allies themselves. The contribution
from all these sources together which the Reparation Commission can hope
to secure by May, 1921, may be put, therefore, at from $1,250,000,000 to
$1,750,000,000 _as a maximum_.[124]

2. _Property in ceded Territory or surrendered under the Armistice_

As the Treaty has been drafted Germany will not receive important
credits available towards meeting reparation in respect of her property
in ceded territory.

_Private_ property in most of the ceded territory is utilized towards
discharging private German debts to Allied nationals, and only the
surplus, if any, is available towards Reparation. The value of such
property in Poland and the other new States is payable direct to the
owners.

_Government_ property in Alsace-Lorraine, in territory ceded to Belgium,
and in Germany's former colonies transferred to a Mandatory, is to be
forfeited without credit given. Buildings, forests, and other State
property which