in the improved tone on the Bourse and throughout
the business world in France." So long as such statements can be
accepted in Paris without protest, there can be no financial or economic
future for France, and a catastrophe of disillusion is not far distant.

[109] As a matter of subjective judgment, I estimate for this
figure an accuracy of 10 per cent in deficiency and 20 per cent in
excess, _i.e._ that the result will lie between $32,000,000,000 and
$44,000,000,000.

[110] Germany is also liable under the Treaty, as an addition
to her liabilities for Reparation, to pay all the costs of the Armies of
Occupation _after_ Peace is signed for the fifteen subsequent years of
occupation. So far as the text of the Treaty goes, there is nothing to
limit the size of these armies, and France could, therefore, by
quartering the whole of her normal standing army in the occupied area,
shift the charge from her own taxpayers to those of Germany,--though in
reality any such policy would be at the expense not of Germany, who by
hypothesis is already paying for Reparation up to the full limit of her
capacity, but of France's Allies, who would receive so much less in
respect of Reparation. A White Paper (Cmd. 240) has, however, been
issued, in which is published a declaration by the Governments of the
United States, Great Britain, and France engaging themselves to limit
the sum payable annually by Germany to cover the cost of occupation to
$60,000,000 "as soon as the Allied and Associated Powers _concerned_ are
convinced that the conditions of disarmament by Germany are being
satisfactorily fulfilled." The word which I have italicized is a little
significant. The three Powers reserve to themselves the liberty to
modify this arrangement at any time if they agree that it is necessary.

[111] Art. 235. The force of this Article is somewhat
strengthened by Article 251, by virtue of which dispensations may also
be granted for "other payments" as well as for food and raw material.

[112] This is the effect of Para. 12 (_c_) of Annex II. of the
Reparation Chapter, leaving minor complications on one side. The Treaty
fixes the payments in terms of _gold marks_, which are converted in the
above rate of 20 to $5.

[113] If, _per impossibile_, Germany discharged $2,500,000,000
in cash or kind by 1921, her annual payments would be at the rate of
$312,500,000 from 1921 to 1925 and of $750,000,000 thereafter.

[114] Para. 16 of Annex II. of T