in Russia outside Government securities have been
estimated at $475,000,000, which is much lower than would be expected,
and in 1906 Sartorius v. Waltershausen estimated her investments in
Russian Government securities at $750,000,000. This gives a total of
$1,225,000,000, which is to some extent borne out by the figure of
$1,000,000,000 given in 1911 by Dr. Ischchanian as a deliberately modest
estimate. A Roumanian estimate, published at the time of that country's
entry in the war, gave the value of Germany's investments in Roumania at
$20,000,000 to $22,000,000, of which $14,000,000 to $16,000,000 were in
Government securities. An association for the defense of French
interests in Turkey, as reported in the _Temps_ (Sept. 8, 1919), has
estimated the total amount of German capital invested in Turkey at about
$295,000,000, of which, according to the latest Report of the Council of
Foreign Bondholders, $162,500,000 was held by German nationals in the
Turkish External Debt. No estimates are available to me of Germany's
investments in Bulgaria. Altogether I venture a deduction of
$2,500,000,000 in respect of this group of countries as a whole.

Resales and the pledging as collateral of securities during the war
under (iii.) I put at $500,000,000 to $750,000,000, comprising
practically all Germany's holding of Scandinavian, Dutch, and Swiss
securities, a part of her South American securities, and a substantial
proportion of her North American securities sold prior to the entry of
the United States into the war.

As to the proper deduction under (iv.) there are naturally no available
figures. For months past the European press has been full of sensational
stories of the expedients adopted. But if we put the value of securities
which have already left Germany or have been safely secreted within
Germany itself beyond discovery by the most inquisitorial and powerful
methods at $500,000,000, we are not likely to overstate it.

These various items lead, therefore, in all to a deduction of a round
figure of about $5,000,000,000, and leave us with an amount of
$1,250,000,000 theoretically still available.[123]

To some readers this figure may seem low, but let them remember that it
purports to represent the remnant of _saleable_ securities upon which
the German Government might be able to lay hands for public purposes. In
my own opinion it is much too high, and considering the problem by a
different method of attack I arrive at