belonged to the former Kingdom of Poland are also to be
surrendered without credit. There remain, therefore, Government
properties, other than the above, surrendered to Poland, Government
properties in Schleswig surrendered to Denmark,[125] the value of the
Saar coalfields, the value of certain river craft, etc., to be
surrendered under the Ports, Waterways, and Railways Chapter, and the
value of the German submarine cables transferred under Annex VII. of the
Reparation Chapter.

Whatever the Treaty may say, the Reparation Commission will not secure
any cash payments from Poland. I believe that the Saar coalfields have
been valued at from $75,000,000 to $100,000,000. A round figure of
$150,000,000 for all the above items, excluding any surplus available in
respect of private property, is probably a liberal estimate.

Then remains the value of material surrendered under the Armistice.
Article 250 provides that a credit shall be assessed by the Reparation
Commission for rolling-stock surrendered under the Armistice as well as
for certain other specified items, and generally for any material so
surrendered for which the Reparation Commission think that credit should
be given, "as having non-military value." The rolling-stock (150,000
wagons and 5,000 locomotives) is the only very valuable item. A round
figure of $250,000,000, for all the Armistice surrenders, is probably
again a liberal estimate.

We have, therefore, $400,000,000 to add in respect of this heading to
our figure of $1,250,000,000 to $1,750,000,000 under the previous
heading. This figure differs from the preceding in that it does not
represent cash capable of benefiting the financial situation of the
Allies, but is only a book credit between themselves or between them and
Germany.

The total of $1,650,000,000 to $2,150,000,000 now reached is not,
however, available for Reparation. The _first_ charge upon it, under
Article 251 of the Treaty, is the cost of the Armies of Occupation both
during the Armistice and after the conclusion of Peace. The aggregate of
this figure up to May, 1921, cannot be calculated until the rate of
withdrawal is known which is to reduce the _monthly_ cost from the
figure exceeding $100,000,000, which prevailed during the first part of
1919, to that of $5,000,000, which is to be the normal figure
eventually. I estimate, however, that this aggregate may be about
$1,000,000,000. This leaves us with from $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000