cluding all methods of
payment--immediately transferable wealth, ceded property, and an annual
tribute--$10,000,000,000 is a safe maximum figure of Germany's capacity
to pay. In all the actual circumstances, I do not believe that she can
pay as much. Let those who consider this a very low figure, bear in mind
the following remarkable comparison. The wealth of France in 1871 was
estimated at a little less than half that of Germany in 1913. Apart from
changes in the value of money, an indemnity from Germany of
$2,500,000,000 would, therefore, be about comparable to the sum paid by
France in 1871; and as the real burden of an indemnity increases more
than in proportion to its amount, the payment of $10,000,000,000 by
Germany would have far severer consequences than the $1,000,000,000 paid
by France in 1871.

There is only one head under which I see a possibility of adding to the
figure reached on the line of argument adopted above; that is, if German
labor is actually transported to the devastated areas and there engaged
in the work of reconstruction. I have heard that a limited scheme of
this kind is actually in view. The additional contribution thus
obtainable depends on the number of laborers which the German Government
could contrive to maintain in this way and also on the number which,
over a period of years, the Belgian and French inhabitants would
tolerate in their midst. In any case, it would seem very difficult to
employ on the actual work of reconstruction, even over a number of
years, imported labor having a net present value exceeding (say)
$1,250,000,000; and even this would not prove in practice a net addition
to the annual contributions obtainable in other ways.

A capacity of $40,000,000,000 or even of $25,000,000,000 is, therefore,
not within the limits of reasonable possibility. It is for those who
believe that Germany can make an annual payment amounting to hundreds of
millions sterling to say _in what specific commodities_ they intend this
payment to be made and _in what markets_ the goods are to be sold. Until
they proceed to some degree of detail, and are able to produce some
tangible argument in favor of their conclusions, they do not deserve to
be believed.[131]

I make three provisos only, none of which affect the force of my
argument for immediate practical purposes.

_First_: if the Allies were to "nurse" the trade and industry of Germany
for a period of five or ten years, supplying her with