y hate so much to believe a disaster possible, they
fear so much to let themselves or others realize that a danger
is impending, they are so afraid that other people will think them
"nervous," and they shrink so from recommending measures that would
cause great exertions or great expenditures, that they are very
prone to believe and say that there is no especial danger, and
that whatever danger there may be, can be obviated by measures that
are easy and cheap to carry out.

If we yield to this feeling, we are guilty of moral cowardice,
and we vitiate all the results of all our labors. We _must_ make
a correct estimate of the situation--or rather we must estimate
the situation to be as grave as it is--or our preparations will
be of no avail. If we estimate the situation too gravely, we may
spend more money and time on our preparations than is quite needed,
and our preparations may be more than adequate. It may be that the
preparations which Prussia made before 1870 for war with France
were more than adequate. In fact, it looks as if they were, in
view of the extreme quickness with which she conquered France. But
does any military writer condemn Prussia for having made assurance
too sure?

_The Value of Superadequate Preparation_.--No, on the contrary.
The very reasons that make adequate preparation valuable make
superadequate preparation even more valuable. The reason is very
clear, as is shown by the table on page 284 illustrating the progressive
wasting of fighting forces, which the writer published in the _U.
S. Naval Institute_ in an essay called "American Naval Policy,"
in April, 1905.[*]

[Footnote *: I have recently been informed that Lieutenant (now
Commander) J. V. Chase, U. S. N., arrived at practically the same
results in 1902 by an application of the calculus; and that he
submitted them to the U. S. Naval War College in a paper headed,
"Sea Fights: A Mathematical Investigation of the Effect of Superiority
of Force in."--B. A. F.]

TABLE I
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|
| | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|Value of offensive power A|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|
| at beginning B|1000| 900| 800|