tish, French, and United States Governments, Belgium would
presumably employ any repayment of them by Germany in part discharge of
her debt to these Governments, so that any such demands are, in effect,
an addition to the claims of the three lending Governments.

The claims of the other Allies would be compiled on similar lines. But
in their case the question arises more acutely how far Germany can be
made contingently liable for damage done, not by herself, but by her
co-belligerents, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Turkey. This is one of
the many questions to which the Fourteen Points give no clear answer; on
the one hand, they cover explicitly in Point 11 damage done to Roumania,
Serbia, and Montenegro, without qualification as to the nationality of
the troops inflicting the damage; on the other hand, the Note of the
Allies speaks of "German" aggression when it might have spoken of the
aggression of "Germany and her allies." On a strict and literal
interpretation, I doubt if claims lie against Germany for damage
done,--_e.g._ by the Turks to the Suez Canal, or by Austrian submarines
in the Adriatic. But it is a case where, if the Allies wished to strain
a point, they could impose contingent liability on Germany without
running seriously contrary to the general intention of their
engagements.

As between the Allies themselves the case is quite different. It would
be an act of gross unfairness and infidelity if France and Great Britain
were to take what Germany could pay and leave Italy and Serbia to get
what they could out of the remains of Austria-Hungary. As amongst the
Allies themselves it is clear that assets should be pooled and shared
out in proportion to aggregate claims.

In this event, and if my estimate is accepted, as given below, that
Germany's capacity to pay will be exhausted by the direct and legitimate
claims which the Allies hold against her, the question of her contingent
liability for her allies becomes academic. Prudent and honorable
statesmanship would therefore have given her the benefit of the doubt,
and claimed against her nothing but the damage she had herself caused.

What, on the above basis of claims, would the aggregate demand amount
to? No figures exist on which to base any scientific or exact estimate,
and I give my own guess for what it is worth, prefacing it with the
following observations.

The amount of the material damage done in the invaded districts has been
the subject of eno