n equal chance of
securing any advantage, the chances are in the same proportion as their
relative strengths. If the majority be twice as strong as the minority,
it will have twice the chance of gaining the advantage. To prove this,
consider the position of a one-third minority in a number of five-seat
electorates. The Droop quota being one-sixth of the votes, the minority
will secure two seats or 40 per cent. in those electorates where it is
just over one-third, and one seat or 20 per cent. where it is just
under. Since the mathematical chances are that it will be over in one
half and under in the other half, it will, on the average, secure only
30 per cent., although entitled to 33 per cent. Again, if the 670
members of the House of Commons were elected in three to five-seat
electorates, and the Droop quota used as proposed by Sir John Lubbock,
and if the Ministerialists were twice as strong as the Oppositionists,
they would, on the average, return 30 more members than the two-thirds
to which they are entitled, and this would count 60 members on a
division.
The following table illustrates the erroneous result obtained by
applying the Droop quota when a number of grouped-electorates are
concerned. It will be noticed that where parties are nearly equal it
makes very little difference which unit is used:--
+-------------+--------------------------------------------+
| STRENGTH OF | AVERAGE REPRESENTATION. |
| +----------------------+---------------------+
| PARTY |Five-Seat Electorates.|Ten-Seat Electorates.|
+-------------+----------------------+---------------------+
| 10 per cent.| 2 per cent. | 6 per cent. |
| 20 " " | 14 " " | 17 " " |
| 30 " " | 26 " " | 28 " " |
| 40 " " | 38 " " | 39 " " |
| 50 " " | 50 " " | 50 " " |
+-------------+----------------------+---------------------+
The Droop quota, therefore, gives, not proportional, but disproportional
representation.
+Election by Each Party of its Most Popular Candidates.+--Still keeping
in mind the six-seat electorate for the Federal Senate, we may note that
there are two rival systems in the field--the _scrutin de liste_ or
Block Vote, in which each elector votes for any six of the candidates,
and the Hare system, which allows each elector an effective vote for one
candidate
|