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@Czech Republic:Economy
Overview: The government of the Czech Republic, using successful
stabilization policies to bolster its claims to full membership in the
western economic community, has reduced inflation to 10%, kept
unemployment at 3%, balanced the budget, run trade surpluses, and
reoriented exports to the EU since the breakup of the Czechoslovak
federation on 1 January 1993. GDP grew 2% in 1994 after stagnating in
1993 and contracting nearly 20% since 1990. Prague's mass
privatization program, including its innovative distribution of
ownership shares to Czech citizens via 'coupon vouchers,' has made the
most rapid progress in Eastern Europe. When coupon shares are
distributed in early 1995, 75%-80% of the economy will be in private
hands or partially privatized, according to the Czech government.
Privatized companies still face major problems in restructuring; the
number of annual bankruptcies quadrupled in 1994. In September 1994,
Prague repaid $471 million in IMF loans five years ahead of schedule,
making the Czech Republic the first East European country to pay off
all IMF debts. Despite these outlays, hard-currency reserves in the
banking system totaled more than $8.5 billion in October. Standard &
Poor's boosted the Republic's credit rating to BBB+ in mid-1994 - up
from a BBB rating that was already two steps higher than Hungary's and
one step above Greece's rating. Prague forecasts a balanced budget, at
least 3% GDP growth, 5% unemployment, and single-digit inflation for
1995. Inflationary pressures - primarily as a result of foreign bank
lending to Czech enterprises but perhaps also due to eased currency
convertibility controls - are likely to be the most troublesome issues
in 1995. Continuing economic recovery in Western Europe should boost
Czech exports and production but a substantial increase in prices
could erode the Republic's comparative advantage in low wages and
exchange rates. Prague already took steps in 1994 to increase control
over banking policies to neutralize the impact of foreign inflows on
the money supply. Although Czech unemployment is currently the lowest
in Central Europe, it will probably increase 1-2 percentage points in
1995 as large state firms go bankrupt or are restructure
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