and 1909; making L106,772,818. This total includes nearly
L1,000,000 for re-sales to owners and some provision for evicted
tenants. Under these heads it will not expand in a greater relative
degree. It includes, also, purchase of whole estates and of untenanted
land by the Estates Commissioners and Congested Districts Board, and
these may involve larger sums than were originally contemplated. I
promised to return to that point, and will now do so. Since the Return
under these heads up to March 31, 1911, tentative negotiations have been
made for the purchase of a number of estates and for supplying more
evicted tenants with holdings. But this does not increase the money size
of the problem by much, because many of these estates--if sold to the
new Congested Districts Board--are subtracted from business that would
have been done by the Estates Commissioners; again, it is, as we know,
impossible to spend much money, or move many migrants, or even enlarge
many holdings, in one year. If the new Congested Districts Board
attempts to handle some millions' worth of land in a hurry, one of two
things must happen, either their work will be indefinitely delayed, or
else they will sell off "uneconomic" holdings without amending their
defects. The business will not cost more. It will only be scamped, or
shirked. I doubt if the additions, which do not conflict with the policy
of 1903, will increase the amount to be borrowed in the market, though
they may increase the sums needed for working capital. Let us add for
these expansions, which are strictly limited by physical impediments,
L2,000,000 or even twice that amount. It still remains obvious that,
even after expansions, good, bad, or indifferent, of the policy of 1903,
the total sum to be borrowed cannot exceed from L110,000,000 to
L113,000,000, as the outside figure that need be contemplated, provided
we refrain from the "economic insanity" of distributing eleven million
acres of permanent pasture among shopkeepers and "Gombeen" men. This
figure of L113,000,000, indeed, exceeds what may reasonably be expected.
The average of advances fell from L426 on the earliest agreements, to
L361 on all agreements to March 31, 1908, and to L287 on agreements
between that date and September 15, 1909. We may count on a continuation
of that fall until the average approaches L200, the price for Connaught,
where purchase has proceeded most slowly. But let the total stand at
L113,000,000. That sum ne