is the most favourable hypothesis. But it is at least conceivable
that a Nationalist Government, whether actuated by a laudable desire to
hurry on Irish industrial development, or influenced by the tradition of
animosity which still plays so strong a part in Nationalist politics,
may refuse to enter upon the policy of Imperial preference. It might
even be tempted by various considerations to give a preference to the
United States or to Germany. Germany is a large importer of foodstuffs.
The establishment of a British tariff may prove a serious blow to her
manufacturing interests. A trade agreement with Ireland might be a very
useful temporary business expedient from the German point of view.
Incidentally a large increase of German merchant shipping in Irish
harbours might, in the case of possible hostilities, be of no little
service in providing commerce destroyers with a most convenient excuse
for being in the most favourable area for their operations. Any fiscal
excursions of that sort would inevitably be visited upon Ireland by
severe economic reprisals of one kind or another on the part of Great
Britain, from which Ireland would receive permanent injury far
outweighing any temporary advantage which might be secured from foreign
countries.

In other words, Ireland under Home Rule would be in almost every respect
thrust back into her eighteenth century position of "least favoured
Colony." She would, at the best, be handicapped in the British market in
respect of those products by which she could profit most, and in those
which she is less fitted to produce would have to compete with the
virgin soil and competitive energy and organisation of the great
Dominions. At the worst, her fiscal policy might invite reprisals and
make her "least favoured" not only by her circumstances but by the
intention of those who would frame the British tariff. It is true that
the British Government would no longer dream of directly interdicting
Irish exports. But in that respect modern organised capital has an
influence to promote or kill almost as great as that of governments in
former times. And the influence of British capital, under such
circumstances, would certainly not tend to be directed towards the
economic development of Ireland.

But the use of the customs tariff is by no means the only great
instrument of a national economic policy. To promote the flow of trade
in national channels, to secure the fullest development of the nat