n; and (3) that the effort would, therefore, be untimely
now, though perhaps useful later.

One idea might possibly bring about peace, if it fructified in the mind
of the German Emperor--the idea, namely, that the chance of Germany's
obtaining dominating power in either Europe or the world having already
gone, the wise thing for him to do is to save United Germany within her
natural boundaries for secure development as a highly civilized strong
nation in the heart of Europe. Surplus population can always emigrate
happily in the future as in the past.

The security of Germany would rest, however, on an international
agreement to be maintained by an international force; whereas, the
example which Germany has just given of the reckless violation of
international agreements is extremely discouraging in regard to the
possibility of securing the peace of Europe in the future.

Although this war has already made quite impossible the domination of
Germany in Europe or in the world, the leaders of Germany do not yet see
or apprehend that impossibility. Hence, many earnest peace-seekers have
to confess that they do not see any means whatever available for
promoting peace in Europe now, or even procuring a short truce.

I wish I could believe with you that the Governments of England, France,
Germany, and Russia would listen to the voice of the American people.
They all seem to desire the good opinion and moral support of America;
but I see no signs that they would take American advice or imitate
American example. President Wilson seems to think that this country will
be accepted as a kind of umpire in this formidable contest; but surely
we have no right to any such position. Our example in avoiding
aggression on other nations, and in declining to enter the contest for
world power, ought to have some effect in abating European ambitions in
that direction; but our exhortations to peace and good-will will, I
fear, have little influence. There is still a real contest on between
democracy and oligarchical methods.

You see, my dear Mr. Schiff, that I regard this war as the result of
long-continuing causes which have been gathering force for more than
fifty years. In Germany all the forces of education, finance, commercial
development, a pagan philosophy, and Government have been preparing this
war since 1860. To stop it now, before these forces have been
overwhelmingly defeated, and before the whole German people is convinced
that