de a definite discouragement of any
expenditures designed for military conquest of the south.

Diplomatic recognition of the southern government is out of the
question at present. It is not out of the question to put on the
financial screws so that the southern government will be allowed space
and time to demonstrate what it can do by peaceful means to give one
or more provinces a decent, honest and progressive civil
administration. It is unnecessary to enumerate the obstacles in the
way of carrying out such a policy. But in my judgment it is the only
policy by which the Great Powers will not become accomplices in
perpetuating the weakness and division of China. It is the most
straightforward way of meeting whatever plans of aggression Japan may
entertain.

May, 1921.

VI

Federalism in China

The newcomer in China in observing and judging events usually makes
the mistake of attaching too much significance to current happenings.
Occurrences take place which in the western world would portend
important changes--and nothing important results. It is not easy to
loosen the habit of years; and so the visitor assumes that an event
which is striking to the point of sensationalism must surely be part
of a train of events having a definite trend; some deep-laid plan must
be behind it. It takes a degree of intellectual patience added to time
and experience to make one realize that even when there is a rhythm in
events the tempo is so retarded that one must wait a long time to
judge what is really going on. Most political events are like daily
changes in the weather, fluctuations back and forth which may
seriously affect individuals but which taken one by one tell little
about the movement of the seasons. Even the occurrences which are due
to human intention are usually sporadic and casual, and the observer
errs by reading into them too much plot, too comprehensive a scheme,
too farsighted a plan. The aim behind the event is likely to be only
some immediate advantage, some direct increase of power, the overthrow
of a rival, the grasping at greater wealth by an isolated act, without
any consecutive or systematic looking ahead.

Foreigners are not the only ones who have erred, however, in judging
the Chinese political situation of the last few years. Beginning two
years ago, one heard experienced Chinese with political affiliations
saying that it was impossible for things to go on as they were for
more than three mo