ensive Alliance, two points must first
be ascertained and settled, (1) Its bearing on the Chinese
Government. (2) Its bearing on those Powers having intimate
relations with and great interests in China.

In considering its effect on the Chinese Government, Japan must try
to foresee whether the position of China's present ruler Yuan
Shih-kai shall be permanent or not; whether the present Government's
policy will enjoy the confidence of a large section of the Chinese
people; whether Yuan Shih-kai will readily agree to the Japanese
Government's proposal to enter into a treaty of alliance with us.
These are points to which we are bound to give a thorough
consideration. Judging by the attitude hitherto adopted by Yuan
Shih-kai we know he has always resorted to the policy of expediency
in his diplomatic dealings, and although he may now outwardly show
friendliness towards us, he will in fact rely upon the influence of
the different Powers as the easiest check against us and refuse to
accede to our demands. Take for a single instance, his conduct
towards us since the Imperial Government declared war against
Germany and his action will then be clear to all. Whether we can
rely upon the ordinary friendly methods of diplomacy to gain our
object or not it does not require much wisdom to decide. After the
gigantic struggle in Europe is over, leaving aside America which
will not press for advantage, China will not be able to obtain any
loans from the other Powers. With a depleted treasury, without means
to pay the officials and the army, with local bandits inciting the
poverty-stricken populace to trouble, with the revolutionists
waiting for opportunities to rise, should an insurrection actually
occur while no outside assistance can be rendered to quell it we are
certain it will be impossible for Yuan Shih-kai, single-handed, to
restore order and consolidate the country. The result will be that
the nation will be cut up into many parts beyond all hope of remedy.
That this state of affairs will come is not difficult to foresee.
When this occurs, shall we uphold Yuan's Government and assist him
to suppress the internal insurrection with the certain assurance
that we could influence him to agree to our demands, or shall we
help the revolutionists to achieve a success and realize our object
thro