evolution. This does not mean that Oriental nations
cannot be strong and powerful, for many of them have at times been
powerful. While they _are_ powerful, their policy is necessarily one
of aggression, because their energy is not able to assert itself in
internal progress and must, therefore, find an outlet in foreign
aggression. Note Russia. In history you will find that the cessation
of aggressiveness in an Oriental nation has always meant either the
beginning of decay or, as was the case of Hungarians in the 11th
century, of an evolution toward Occidentalism. In the 11th century the
Hungarians were Oriental--now they are Occidental. That may follow in
Russia too if she is defeated in the present war. Paradoxical as the
statement seems, defeat contains brighter prospects for her than
victory. For nations at large the victory of Russia would mean the
advance of the inferior Eastern type of civilization at the expense of
the superior Western one, a calamity not to be considered without
shuddering."

He continued: "Turkey is no longer an aggressive representative of
Orientalism. She is even trying under the 'Young Turks' to become
Occidental. Her 'Young Turks' are laboring for results which would
include all my four definitions of Occidentalism. Her participation in
the present war does not fall under the head of East versus West, but
is inspired simply by consideration for her own safety as an Asiatic
power and as the guardian of Constantinople. In a general sort of way,
there is no formula that covers the whole ground of all the phenomena
of any great action. There is always an intersection of motives. As
between Russia and Austria-Hungary, the present war is a struggle of
the East in its Russian form against the West, but two other forces
are at work which, although they do not concern us in the least,
combine with this one. These are the Anglo-German trade rivalry and
the Franco-German race antipathy."

Since I have been in the countries of the Dual Alliance I have been
anxious to secure a clear and reasonable declaration of the motives
which actuate the leading men in the nations comprising it. It was not
possible to obtain such an explanation in Germany, because people
either frankly admitted that Germany's purpose was to become through
military aggression the dominant power of the world, or they flew into
such a rage at the mere question that nothing they said was either
reasonable or consecutive. Even the car