sked 241

Evolutions: operations involved in the study of them--The
place of particular facts (events) in evolution--Important
and unimportant facts 244

Periods--How they should be defined 249

CHAPTER III

CONSTRUCTIVE REASONING

Incompleteness of the facts yielded by documents--Cautions
to be observed in filling up the gaps by reasoning 252

The argument from silence--When admissible 254

Positive reasoning based on documents--The general principles
employed must enter into details, and the particular
facts to which they are applied must not be taken in
isolation 256

CHAPTER IV

THE CONSTRUCTION OF GENERAL FORMULAE

History, like every science, needs formulae by which the facts
acquired may be condensed into manageable form 262

Descriptive formulae--Should retain characteristic features--Should
be as concrete as possible 264

Formulae describing general facts--How constructed--Conventional
forms and realities--Mode of formulating an
evolution 266

Formulae describing unique facts--Principle of choice--"Character"
of persons--Precautions in formulating
them--Formulae describing events 270

Quantitative formulae--Operations by which they may be
obtained: measurement, enumeration, valuation, sampling,
generalisation--Precautions to be observed in generalising 274

Formulae expressing relations--General conclusions--Estimation
of the extent and value of the knowledge acquired--Imperfection
of data not to be forgotten in construction 279

Groups and their classification 282

The "solidarity" of social phenomena--Necessity of studying
causes--Metaphysical hypothesis--Providence--Conception
of events as "rational"--The Hegelian "ideas"--The
historical "mission"--The theory of the general
progress of humanity 285

The conception of society as an organism--The comparative
method--Statistics--Causes cannot be investigated
directly, as in other sciences--Causation as exhibited in
the sequence of particular events