old us they preferred to be within a
democratic, federal Iraqi state because an independent Kurdistan would
be surrounded by hostile neighbors. However, a majority of Kurds favor
independence. The Kurds have their own security forces--the
peshmerga--which number roughly 100,000. They believe they could
accommodate themselves to either a unified or a fractured Iraq.

Barzani and Talabani

Kurdish politics has been dominated for years by two figures who have
long-standing ties in movements for Kurdish independence and
self-government.

MASSOUD BARZANI: Barzani is the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic
Party and the President of the Kurdish regional government. Barzani
has cooperated with his longtime rival, Jalal Talabani, in securing an
empowered, autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq. Barzani has
ordered the lowering of Iraqi flags and raising of Kurdish flags in
Kurdish-controlled areas.

JALAL TALABANI: Talabani is the leader of the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan and the President of Iraq. Whereas Barzani has focused his
efforts in Kurdistan, Talabani has secured power in Baghdad, and
several important PUK government ministers are loyal to him. Talabani
strongly supports autonomy for Kurdistan. He has also sought to bring
real power to the office of the presidency.

Key Issues

NATIONAL RECONCILIATION. Prime Minister Maliki outlined a commendable
program of national reconciliation soon after he entered office.
However, the Iraqi government has not taken action on the key elements
of national reconciliation: revising de-Baathification, which prevents
many Sunni Arabs from participating in governance and society;
providing amnesty for those who have fought against the government;
sharing the country's oil revenues; demobilizing militias; amending
the constitution; and settling the future of Kirkuk.

One core issue is federalism. The Iraqi Constitution, which created a
largely autonomous Kurdistan region, allows other such regions to be
established later, perhaps including a "Shi'astan" comprising nine
southern provinces. This highly decentralized structure is favored by
the Kurds and many Shia (particularly supporters of Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim), but it is anathema to Sunnis. First, Sunni Arabs are generally
Iraqi nationalists, albeit within the context of an Iraq they believe
they should govern. Second, because Iraq's energy resources are in the
Kurdish and Shia regions, there is no economically feasibl