e Powers, Germany included,
contending for territory and trade at the risk of the peace of Europe; we
have found Germany successfully developing her interests in Turkey; we have
found England annexing the South African republics, France Morocco, Italy
Tripoli; we have found all the Powers stealing in China, and in all these
transactions we have found them continually on the point of being at one
another's throats. Nevertheless, some last instinct of self-preservation
has enabled them, so far, to pull up in time. The crises had been overcome
without a war. Yet they had, of course, produced their effects. Some
statesmen probably, like Sir Edward Grey, had had their passion for
peace confirmed by the dangers encountered. In others, no doubt, an
opposite effect had been produced, and very likely by 1913 there were
prominent men in Europe convinced that war must come, and manoeuvring
only that it should come at the time and occasion most favourable to
their country. That, according to M. Cambon, was now the attitude of
the German Emperor. M. Cambon bases this view on an alleged conversation
between the Kaiser and the King of the Belgians.[1] The conversation has
been denied by the German official organ, but that, of course, is no
proof that it did not take place, and there is nothing improbable in
what M. Cambon narrates.

The conversation is supposed to have occurred in November 1913, at a
time when, as we have seen,[2] there was a distinct outburst in France
of anti-German chauvinism, and when the arming and counter-arming of that
year had exasperated opinion to an extreme degree. The Kaiser is reported
to have said that war between Germany and France was inevitable. If he did,
it is clear from the context that he said it in the belief that French
chauvinism would produce war. For the King of the Belgians, in replying,
is stated to have said that it was "a travesty, of the French Government
to interpret it in that sense, and to let oneself be misled as to the
sentiments of the French nation by the ebullitions of a few irresponsible
spirits or the intrigues of unscrupulous agitators." It should be observed
also that this supposed attitude on the part of the Kaiser is noted as a
change, and that he is credited with having previously stood for peace
against the designs of the German Jingoes. His personal influence, says
the dispatch, "had been exerted on many critical occasions in support of
peace." The fact of a change of min