nd the results will be the
same. Would independence have been granted to the Transvaal or Orange
Free State had their use of it been foreseen? Taking the factors in both
cases into account, is there anything to justify the doubt that a
repetition of that situation will occur, with the only difference that
eventual rupture will probably entail the dismemberment of the Empire?

It is universally acknowledged that this country is at present faced
with a more critical European situation than any we have experienced for
a hundred years. It has tied our fleet to home waters, and has induced a
very large and influential section of our people to advocate the
necessity of compulsory military service. Our military organisation is
on the face of it a makeshift, and the makeshift is not even complete,
for in the Territorial Army and the Special Reserve alone there is a
shortage of more than 80,000 men.

Now, our foreign policy of _ententes_ and the needs of our oversea
territories have necessitated a military organisation, the foundation of
which is readiness to undertake an oversea expedition as well as to
provide for home defence. The critical situation in Europe especially
will demand the instant despatch of our Expeditionary Force on the
outbreak of war, in which case there will be left in these islands the
following forces after deducting 10 per cent, for casualties:--

About 55,000 Regulars, of whom 30,000 will be under 20 years of age.

About 30,000 Reservists. These will be required to reinforce the
Expeditionary Force.

About 60,000 Special Reservists. Some 30,000 of these are under 20. This
force is to be used to reinforce the troops abroad.

About 245,000 Territorials. 72,000 of these are under 20.

In all there are some 400,000 men, of whom 130,000 are boys and 60,000
will leave the country soon after war breaks out. This will leave some
210,000 men to provide for the defence of England, Scotland, and
Ireland, supplemented by 130,000 boys. These troops will be deprived of
practically all Regular and even Reserve officers, and will have to
provide for coast defence, for the security of law and order, and for
the numbers required for a central field force. By means of juggling
with figures, by the registration of names in what is called the
National Reserve, but has no organisation or corporate existence, and by
similar means, the seriousness of this situation has been concealed to
some extent, but it is generally