unrest, which, on the most favourable hypothesis,
can only cease altogether when the present generation has passed away.
This unrest may take two forms; either civil war, or a condition where
the rousing of old animosities, religious and otherwise, leads to
internal disturbances of all kinds. It is not proposed to deal here with
the consequences involved by the calling in of troops to suppress by
force of arms an insurrectionary movement against the Government of
Ireland. In view of the present state of affairs in Ulster, such an
event seems extremely probable, but the disastrous results of passing
Home Rule in face of it are so patent to all that it is unnecessary to
enlarge upon them here. We have, therefore, to consider a condition of
things in which old mutual hatreds have re-awakened, in which Ireland
will be governed by men who have up till now preached sedition, have
done their best to check recruiting, who have deliberately set up an
ideal of "complete separation" as their ultimate goal, and whose motto
has always been "England's difficulty is Ireland's opportunity."

It is conceivable, of course, though it is extremely improbable, that
these aims and ideals may be abjured in course of time, but the gravity
of these risks must be taken into account in examining Ireland's
position in any scheme of national and Imperial defence both now and in
the future.

And in this connection it may be remarked that an almost exact analogy
to the situation which will probably result from this measure may be
seen in the events which preceded the Boer war, and it seems somewhat
remarkable that those who endeavour to justify Home Rule by the supposed
Colonial analogy should overlook a warning so evident and so recent in
the history of our oversea dominions.

A Separatist party in Ireland would be enabled to work for ultimate
independence as did President Kruger, and by the same methods, the same
secret acquisition of arms and implements of war, the same building of
fortresses with a view to a declaration of independence when a suitable
opportunity arrived; and this would be all the more likely to occur if
Ulster were exempted from a Home Rule Parliament. In this case Ulstermen
would occupy exactly the same position as did the Uitlanders from 1895
to 1899. The same arguments for granting independence to Ireland are
used now, the same talk of injustice towards those who are disloyal with
equal disregard of the loyalist section, a