e were preparing the downfall of the Republic, and the
establishment of a great empire upon its ruins. They will show how the
intellectual influences of the Renaissance, the invention of printing,
and a crowd of other causes, many of them at first sight very remote
from theological controversies, had in the sixteenth century so
shaken the power of the Roman Catholic Church, that the way was
prepared for the Reformation, and it became possible for Luther and
Calvin to succeed, where Wyckliffe and Huss had failed. They will show
how profoundly our theological beliefs are affected by our general
conception of the system of the universe, and how inevitably, as
Science changes the latter, the former will undergo a corresponding
process of modification. Creeds that are no longer in harmony with the
general spirit of the time may long continue, but a new spirit will be
breathed into the old forms. Those portions which are most discordant
with our fresh knowledge will be neglected or attenuated. Although
they may not be openly discarded, they will cease to be realised or
vitally operative.

In the sphere of politics a similar law prevails, and the fate of
nations largely depends upon forces quite different from those on
which the mere political historian concentrates his attention. The
growth of military or industrial habits; the elevation or depression
of different classes; the changes that take place in the distribution
of wealth; inventions or discoveries that alter the course or
character of industry or commerce, or reverse the relative advantages
of different nations in the competitions of life; the increase and,
still more, the diffusion of knowledge; the many influences that
affect convictions, habits and ideals, that raise, or lower, or modify
the moral tone and type--all these things concur in shaping the
destinies of nations. Legislation is only really successful when it is
in harmony with the general spirit of the age. Laws and statesmen for
the most part indicate and ratify, but do not create. They are like
the hands of the watch, which move obedient to the hidden machinery
behind.

In all this kind of speculation there is, I believe, great truth, and
it opens out fields of inquiry that are of the utmost interest and
importance. I have, however, long thought that it has been pushed by
some modern writers to extravagant exaggeration. As you well know,
there is another aspect of history, which, long before Carlyle,