an a
coffee cup. The submarine thus sinks its victims without ever
emerging or ever being seen. As things now stand, the Germans are
winning the war, and they are winning it on the sea; that's the
queer and the most discouraging fact. My own opinion is that all
the facts ought to be published to all the world. Let the Germans
get all the joy they can out of the confession. No matter, if the
Government and the people of the United States knew all the facts,
we'd have 1,000 improvised destroyers (yachts, tugs, etc., etc.)
armed and over here very quickly. Then the tide would turn.

Then there'd be nothing to fear in the long run. For the military
authorities all agree that the German Army is inferior to the
British and French and will be whipped. That may take a long time
yet; but of the result nobody who knows seems to have any
doubt--unless the French get tired and stop. They have periods of
great war weariness and there is real danger that they may quit and
make a separate peace. General Pershing's presence has made the
situation safe for the moment. But in a little while something else
spectacular and hopeful may be required to keep them in line.

Such is an accurate picture of the war as it is now, and it is a
dangerous situation.

2. The next grave danger is financial. The European Allies have so
bled the English for money that the English would by this time
probably have been on a paper money basis (and of course all the
Allies as well) if we had not come to their financial aid. And
we've got to keep our financial aid going to them to prevent this
disastrous result. That wouldn't at once end the war, if they had
all abandoned specie payments; but it would be a frightfully severe
blow and it might later bring defeat. That is a real danger. And
the Government at Washington, I fear, does not know the full extent
of the danger. They think that the English are disposed to lie down
on them. They don't realize the cost of the war. This Government
has bared all this vast skeleton to me; but I fear that Washington
imagines that part of it is a deliberate scare. It's a very real
danger.

Now, certain detached items:

Sims is the idol of the British Admiralty and he is doing his job
just as well as any man could with the tools and the chan