rine peril.
There is a faction in the Admiralty which possesses the
indisputable facts and which takes a very disheartening view of
the situation. This group insists that the Cabinet should make a
confession at least to us of the full extent of the danger and that
it should give more information to the public. The public does not
feel great alarm simply because it has been kept in too great
ignorance. But the political faction is so far the stronger. It
attempts to minimize the facts, and, probably for political
reasons, it refuses to give these discouraging facts wide
publicity. The politicians urge that it is necessary to conceal the
full facts from the Germans. They also see great danger in throwing
the public into a panic.

Mr. Lloyd George is always optimistic and he is too much inclined
to yield his judgment to political motives. In his recent address
in Glasgow he gave the public a comforting impression of the
situation. But the facts do not warrant the impression which he
gave.

This dispute among the political factions is most unfortunate and
it may cause an explosion of public feeling at any time. Changes in
the Cabinet may come in consequence. If the British public knew all
the facts or if the American people knew them, the present British
Government would probably fall. It is therefore not only the
submarine situation which is full of danger. The political
situation is in a dangerous state also.

PAGE.

_To Arthur W. Page_

Wilsford Manor, Salisbury,

July 8, 1917.

DEAR ARTHUR:

Since admirals and generals began to come from home, they and the
war have taken my time so completely, day and night, that I haven't
lately written you many things that I should like to tell you. I'll
try here--a house of a friend of ours where the only other guest
besides your mother and me is Edward Grey. This is the first time
I've seen him since he left office. Let me take certain big
subjects in order and come to smaller things later:

1. The German submarines are succeeding to a degree that the public
knows nothing about. These two things are true: (a) The Germans are
building submarines faster than the English sink them. In this way,
therefore, they are steadily gaining. (b) The submarines are
sinking freig