paper and in a few minutes he had written
his own version which he gave the Admiral to read. The latter was
delighted with it and in a brief time it was on its way to Washington.

From: Ambassador Page.
To: Secretary of State.
Sent: 27 April, 1917.

_Very confidential for Secretary and President_

There is reason for the greatest alarm about the issue of the war
caused by the increasing success of the German submarines. I have
it from official sources that during the week ending 22nd April, 88
ships of 237,000 tons, allied and neutral, were lost. The number of
vessels unsuccessfully attacked indicated a great increase in the
number of submarines in action.

This means practically a million tons lost every month till the
shorter days of autumn come. By that time the sea will be about
clear of shipping. Most of the ships are sunk to the westward and
southward of Ireland. The British have in that area every available
anti-submarine craft, but their force is so insufficient that they
hardly discourage the submarines.

The British transport of troops and supplies is already strained to
the utmost, and the maintenance of the armies in the field is
threatened. There is food enough here to last the civil population
only not more than six weeks or two months.

Whatever help the United States may render at any time in the
future, or in any theatre of the war, our help is now more
seriously needed in this submarine area for the sake of all the
Allies than it can ever be needed again, or anywhere else.

After talking over this critical situation with the Prime Minister
and other members of the Government, I can not refrain from most
strongly recommending the immediate sending over of every destroyer
and all other craft that can be of anti-submarine use. This seems
to me the sharpest crisis of the war, and the most dangerous
situation for the Allies that has arisen or could arise.

If enough submarines can be destroyed in the next two or three
months, the war will be won, and if we can contribute effective
help immediately, it will be won directly by our aid. I cannot
exaggerate the pressing and increasing danger of this situation.
Thirty or more destroyers and other similar craft sent by us
immediately would very likely be decisive.

Ther