of greatest mutual advantage, as was shown, it is claimed,
when Britain after losing political control of America doubled her
commerce with America. It does not pay to fight for colonies, since
colonials if left alone will buy in the cheapest and sell in the
dearest market. With nothing to fight for, peace and prosperity will
come with free trade, which the nations will adopt as soon as they
perceive their own interests. There is no economic reason for warfare,
which like other superstitions will vanish as men emerge from the
darkness of ignorance.

It is a pacifying theory, and yet something seems wrong {30} with it.
The optimistic forecasts have been belied; the nations have not
acclaimed free trade, but rear tariff walls higher than ever. Nor do
the nations abjure colonial expansion, but fight for colonies and
"spheres of influence" and lands for "peaceful penetration," as tribes
once fought for pastures, and cities for trade-routes. The national
spirit, instead of succumbing to an era of peaceful individualism and
cosmopolitanism, is stronger and more embittered than ever. Armaments
pile up. Colonial disputes become more acrid, international jealousies
more acute, until in the end we are cast into the pit of the
long-dreaded World War. We do not know that this is the last World
War. We are not sure that the same inveterate, millennium-old struggle
for food, the same bitter "business" which has always meant war, is yet
finished and done for.

Even if war does not cease, however, may we not at least be exempt from
the scourge on this safe side of the broad Atlantic? Though it rains
outside, may we not keep dry beneath our big umbrella? We Americans
are accustomed to think of ourselves as a peace-loving, unaggressive
people, envying no nation its dominion or wealth, and incurring the
enmity of no nation. Let the peoples of Europe destroy themselves in
ceaseless, insane conflicts, but let us, by keeping to our side of the
ocean, save ourselves from slaughter as Lot was saved from the fate of
Gomorrah.

It is not a noble caution that thus disregards the fate of the world
and seeks only the national safety. Nor is it in truth a wise caution.
Those who are too circumspect incur the greatest danger, and those who
trust to their own unoffending reckon on a doubtful factor. Why should
we alone, among the nations be exempt from economic forces, which drive
peace-loving nations into war? Have we by our rapid