s_ of
November 11, 1921, I notice a pessimistic article headed: "The Peril of
China. A dozen rival Governments." But in Europe there are much more
than a dozen Governments, and their enmities are much fiercer than those
of China. The number of troops in Europe is enormously greater than in
China, and they are infinitely better provided with weapons of
destruction. The amount of fighting in Europe since the Armistice has
been incomparably more than the amount in China during the same period.
You may travel through China from end to end, and it is ten to one that
you will see no signs of war. Chinese battles are seldom bloody, being
fought by mercenary soldiers who take no interest in the cause for which
they are supposed to be fighting. I am inclined to think that the
inhabitants of China, at the present moment, are happier, on the
average, than the inhabitants of Europe taken as a whole.

It is clear, I think, that political reform in China, when it becomes
possible, will have to take the form of a federal constitution, allowing
a very large measure of autonomy to the provinces. The division into
provinces is very ancient, and provincial feeling is strong. After the
revolution, a constitution more or less resembling our own was
attempted, only with a President instead of a King. But the successful
working of a non-federal constitution requires a homogeneous population
without much local feeling, as may be seen from our own experience in
Ireland. Most progressive Chinese, as far as I was able to judge, now
favour a federal constitution, leaving to the Central Government not
much except armaments, foreign affairs, and customs. But the difficulty
of getting rid of the existing military anarchy is very great. The
Central Government cannot disband the troops, because it cannot find
the money to pay them. It would be necessary to borrow from abroad
enough money to pay off the troops and establish them in new jobs. But
it is doubtful whether any Power or Powers would make such a loan
without exacting the sacrifice of the last remnants of Chinese
independence. One must therefore hope that somehow the Chinese will find
a way of escaping from their troubles without too much foreign
assistance.

It is by no means impossible that one of the Tuchuns may become supreme,
and may then make friends with the constitutionalists as the best way of
consolidating his influence. China is a country where public opinion has
great weight, and