st be excluded. Russia, China, and
India contain vast plains given over to peasant agriculture; they are
easily swayed by military empires such as that of Jenghis Khan; with
modern railways, they could be dominated from a centre more securely
than in former times. They could be self-subsistent economically, and
invulnerable to outside attack, independent of commerce, and so strong
as to be indifferent to progress. All this may come about some day, if
Russia happens to develop a great conqueror supported by German
organizing ability. But Japan stands outside this order of
possibilities. Japan, like Great Britain, must depend upon commerce for
power and prosperity. As yet, Japan has not developed the Liberal
mentality appropriate to a commercial nation, and is still bent upon
Asiatic conquest and military prowess. This policy brings with it
conflicts with China and Russia, which the present weakness of those
Powers has enabled Japan, hitherto, to conduct successfully. But both
are likely to recover their strength sooner or later, and then the
essential weakness of present Japanese policy will become apparent.

It results naturally from the situation that the Japanese have two
somewhat incompatible ambitions. On the one hand, they wish to pose as
the champions of Asia against the oppression of the white man; on the
other hand, they wish to be admitted to equality by the white Powers,
and to join in the feast obtained by exploiting the nations that are
inefficient in homicide. The former policy should make them friendly to
China and India and hostile to the white races; the latter policy has
inspired the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and its fruits in the annexation of
Korea and the virtual annexation of Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. As a
member of the League of Nations, of the Big Five at Versailles, and of
the Big Three at Washington, Japan appears as one of the ordinary Great
Powers; but at other moments Japan aims at establishing a hegemony in
Asia by standing for the emancipation from white tyranny of those who
happen to be yellow or brown, but not black. Count Okuma, speaking in
the Kobe Chamber of Commerce, said: "There are three hundred million
natives in India looking to us to rescue them from the thraldom of Great
Britain."[56] While in the Far East, I inquired of innumerable
Englishmen what advantage our Government could suppose that we derived
from the Japanese Alliance. The only answer that seemed to me to supply
an