entred in the Balkans.

* * * * *

Successes in Russia have made the people here very cocky. Hence,
probably, the torpedoing of the _Arabic_. Also great hope of
Bulgaria coming in with Germany; there is no more dissatisfaction
heard over the war. I have as yet received nothing from
Washington regarding the _Arabic_.

* * * * *

I have just spent four half days at Ruhleben, where civilian
Britishers are interned, so as to give every prisoner a chance to
speak to me personally.

* * * * *

There is much talk of creating an independent Poland. The
Reichstag session has developed no opposition.

A fac-simile of that infernal advertisement[A] of the Cleveland
Automatic Tool Company in the _American Machinist_ was laid on
the desk of every member of the Reichstag; and the papers are
full of accounts of great deliveries of war munitions by America,
possibly preparing people for a break. If Bulgaria comes in,
Germany will undoubtedly take a strip in Servia and keep a road
to Constantinople and the East. The new Turkish Ambassador has
just arrived. The old one was not friendly to Enver Bey and so
was bounced; he remains here, however, as he fears if he went to
Turkey he would get some "special" coffee. The hate for Americans
grows daily.

[Footnote A: This was an advertisement in an American newspaper
about machines for the manufacture of particularly deadly shells
and was much used in Germany to show how America was helping the
Entente.]

* * * * *

All rumours are that in the recent council at Posen the
Chancellor, advocating concessions in submarine war, won out over
von Tirpitz. But von Tirpitz will die hard, and there will be
trouble yet, as the Navy will be very angry if the present
methods are abandoned. Members of the Reichstag have telegraphed
backing up the Chancellor; but it is hard for any civilian idea
to prevail against Army or Navy.

Probably the Admiralty will say that the submarine which
torpedoed the _Arabic_ was lost, in order to avoid disgracing an
officer.

If the _Arabic_ question is not complicated with the _Lusitania_
a solution will be easier. The common people have been aroused by
von Tirpitz's press bureau and it will be simpler for the
Chancellor to "back track," taking as an example a case like the
_Arabic_ when the ship was going West and carried no ammunitio