ut to offer to sink no merchant ships
without notice and putting crews, etc., in safety, if England
would disarm merchant ships, but now, since the President's
letter to Stone, both the Chancellor and von Jagow say they are
convinced that America has a secret understanding with England
and that nothing can be arranged.

Captain Persius points out in to-day's _Tageblatt_ that it is not
submarines alone that are now, without notice, going to sink
armed merchant ships, but cruisers, etc., will take a hand.

It is reported that the Kaiser went to Wilhelmshafen to warn
submarine commanders to be careful and that submarines will hunt
in pairs, one standing ready to torpedo while the other warns.
The German losses at Verdun are small as artillery fire
annihilated enemy first. I think an attack will be made now in
another part of the front.

Germany has forbidden the _import_ of many articles of luxury;
this is to keep exchange more normal and keep gold in the
country. This probably will continue after the war.

* * * * *

Some newspaper men just in from Verdun report the Germans saving
men--losses small--going at it with artillery, probably over
1,000 guns, and making a slow and almost irresistible push. Some
military attaches think there may be a strong attack somewhere
else on the front.

This Verdun attack was undoubtedly made to keep Roumania out.

I think the food question here is getting very serious, but
before they are starved out they will starve six million
Belgians, eleven million Russians and Poles and two million
prisoners; so that, after all, this starvation business is not
practical.

* * * * *

There was a Grand Council of War last week at Charleville to
determine whether von Tirpitz's proposition, to start an
unlimited submarine blockade of England, should be started or
not--i.e., sink all ships, enemy and neutral, at sight.
Falkenhayn was for this, the Chancellor against, and von Tirpitz
lost. The decision, of course, was made by the Emperor.

Great advertising efforts are being made on the question of the
Fourth War Loan. It will, of course, be announced as successful.

There are undoubtedly two submarine parties in Germany and there
may be an unlimited blockade of England.

I think Germany, as at present advised, is willing, if merchant
ships are disarmed, to agree to sink no boats whatever without
warning and without putting pa