he Germans
generally are, at present, in rather a waiting attitude, perhaps
anxious to see what our attitude toward England will be--but this
will not affect their submarine policy. The Foreign Office now
claims, I hear, that I am hostile to Germany, but that claim was
to be expected. Of course, I had no more to do with the American
note than they did, but it is impossible to convince them of
that, so I shall not try.

* * * * *

Germany has the Balkan situation well in hand. Roumania can do
nothing in the face of recent Russian defeats and has just
consented to allow grain to be exported to Austria and Germany,
but has, I think, not yet consented to allow the passage of
ammunition to Turkey. The pressure, however, is great. If not
successful, perhaps German troops will invade Servia so as to get
a passage through to Turkey.

A minister from one of the Balkan States told me the situation of
Roumania, Greece and Bulgaria was about the same, each state can
last in war only about three months, so all are trying to gauge
three months before the end and then come in on the winning side.

The Bulgarian Minister of the Public Debt got in here by mistake
the other day, insisting he had an appointment; he _had_ an
appointment with the Treasurer, Helfferich, whose office is
nearby. This shows, perhaps, that Bulgaria is getting money here.

Also the Germans are sending back to Russia, Russians of
revolutionary tendencies, who were prisoners here, with money
and passports in order that they may stir up trouble at home.

The Germans are making a great effort to take Warsaw, even old
Landsturm men are in the fighting line; I think they will get it,
and then they hope to turn two million men and strike a great
blow in France--thus they expect to end the war by October.

* * * * *

I notice now a slight reaction from annexation toward giving up
all or part of Belgium; but I must say I hear very little of
popular dissatisfaction with the war. Everything seems to be
going smoothly; but they are scraping the bottom of the box on
getting men for the army.

* * * * *

It is not pleasant to be hated by so many millions. The Germans
naturally make me the object of their concentrated hate. I
received an anonymous letter in which the kindly writer rejoices
that so many Americans were drowned in the Chicago disaster. This
shows the state o