tical insight. Almost unnoticed
on its publication in 1912, the "Anglo-German Problem" is to-day one
of the three books on the war most widely read throughout the British
Empire, and is being translated into the French, Dutch, and Spanish
languages.

III.

Not only have the principles and general conclusions propounded in the
"Anglo-German Problem" received signal confirmation from recent
events, but the forecasts and anticipations have been verified in
every detail. It is the common fate of war books to become very
quickly out of date. After four years, there is not one paragraph
which has been contradicted by actual fact. Even the chapter on the
Baghdad Railway, written in 1906 and published as a separate pamphlet
nine years ago, remains substantially correct. One of the leading
magnates of Wall Street wrote to me: "Events have not only unfolded
themselves in the way you anticipated, but they have happened for the
identical reasons which you indicated." I pointed out the fatal peril
of the Austrian-Serbian differences and of the _Drang nach Osten_
policy, and it is those Serbian-Austrian differences which have
precipitated the war. I prophesied that the invasion of Belgium and
not the invasion of England was the contingency to be dreaded, and
Belgium has become the main theatre of military operations. I
emphasized that the conflict was one of fundamental moral and
political ideals rather than of economic interests, and the war has
developed into a religious crusade. I prophesied that the war would be
long and cruel, and it has proved the most ruthless war of modern
times.

All the forces which I prophesied would make for war have made for
war: the reactionary policy of the Junkerthum, the internal troubles,
the personality of the Kaiser, the propaganda of the Press and of the
Universities. Similarly, the forces which were expected to make for
peace, and which I prophesied would _not_ make for peace, have failed
to work for peace. Few publicists anticipated that the millions of
German Social Democrats would behave as timid henchmen of the Prussian
Junker, and my friend Vandervelde, leader of the International Social
Democracy and now Belgian Minister of State, indignantly repudiated my
reflections on his German comrades. Alas! the Gospel according to St.
Marx has been as ineffectual as the Gospel according to St. Marc. The
Social Democracy which called itself the International (with a capital
I) has proved selfi