e most prominent leader, and received as warm
consideration--asserted was his clear duty and obligation.

A letter which he had written two days before Christmas, 1911, shows
unmistakably how his mind was working in those days of prologue to the
great decision. The letter was entirely private, and was addressed to my
father who was a publisher and a friend and not a politician. There is,
therefore, no reason whatever why the letter should not be accepted as
an accurate picture of Mr. Roosevelt's mind at that time: "Now for the
message Harold gave me, that I should write you a little concerning
political conditions. They are very, very mixed. Curiously enough, my
article on the trusts was generally accepted as bringing me forward for
the Presidential nomination. Evidently what really happened was that
there had been a strong undercurrent of feeling about me, and that the
talk concerning the article enabled this feeling to come to the surface.
I do not think it amounts to anything. It merely means that a great many
people do not get the leadership they are looking for from any of the
prominent men in public life, and that under the circumstances they
grasp at any one; and as my article on the McNamaras possessed at least
the merit of being entirely clearcut and of showing that I knew my own
mind and had definite views, a good many plain people turned longingly
to me as a leader. Taft is very weak, but La Follette has not developed
real strength east of the Mississippi River, excepting of course in
Wisconsin. West of the River he has a large following, although there is
a good deal of opposition to him even in States like Kansas, Washington,
and California. East of the Mississippi, I believe he can only pick up
a few delegates here and there. Taft will have most of the Southern
delegates, he will have the officeholders, and also the tepid and
acquiescent, rather than active, support of the ordinary people who do
not feel very strongly one way or the other, and who think it is the
usual thing to renominate a President. If there were a strong candidate
against him, he would I believe be beaten, but there are plenty of men,
many of the leaders not only here but in Texas, for instance, in Ohio,
in New Hampshire and Illinois, who are against him, but who are even
more against La Follette, and who regard themselves as limited to the
alternative between the two. There is, of course, always the danger that
there may be a movement f