ary precautions, of a federated Europe. All which we have done at
The Hague, far from being lost, will serve as a foundation for the
building of a pacific federation.

On these three points one may prophesy a unanimity almost complete; but
the division will begin when it comes to distinguishing between Germany
and the empire, between the German people who have a right to live and
the German Empire which opposed the right to live; the division will
begin when some demand the humiliation of Germany, others the ruin of
her colonies, and of her very life. France, who has defended peace,
will, I am sure, also defend justice; but justice will not triumph
without difficulty. And it is here that the United States will render
great service, if the United States has preserved, as one can see so
clearly in the Mexican crisis, her moral authority and
disinterestedness.

In the cuttings from the American papers which you have sent me I have
read with great disquietude an article which says that, after all, the
United States "will be the beneficiary of the European war." This
article claims that the United States may profit very easily by this war
to take away from Germany her commerce in the three Americas, &c. It is
a dangerous form of reasoning, which, however, is not new.

If war has attracted ardent partisans it is because it appeals to the
temperament of many people, it flatters their self-pride, but also it
serves their interests. I have never understood it as I do at present. I
see, for example, the town of Mons enriching itself through the war;
cafes, restaurants, the hotels, are unable to accommodate all who come
to them; the farmers are seen disputing about their products. There are
also the military requisitions by which one can profit in getting rid of
an old horse, of a wagon, an automobile, &c.; there are the butchers,
the bakers, the dealers in cutlery, &c., who have never had so many
purchasers; the furnishers of materials for the hospitals, pharmacists,
orthopedists, &c.

Add to these an immense number of furnishers of military supplies, not
only those who sell cannon, arms, and ammunition, but the accessories,
the uniforms, material for the transports, and for the administrative
work, &c. They are legion. Add to these all the combatants who have been
promised positions as officers, Colonels, Generals. * * * Napoleon I.
gave titles and honors. * * * You will understand that after the war, if
there is an infinite