and they may have
wrought the major effect. The world may be steadying and steeling its
nerves. Now, turning to the actual effects, we discover somewhat
remarkable facts. Expressed both absolutely and as percentages of the
price averaged from the 1st of October to the 31st of July, the range of
movement, standard deviation, and mean weekly movement calculated
between the times mentioned above (October 1st to July 31st), after
diminishing significantly for some years after the later 'sixties, have
risen appreciably on the whole of late years. The figures in the table
below are from the _Journal of the Royal Statistical Society_, June
1906: quotations for August and September were omitted to avoid the
transition movements between the price levels of two crops.

In this table measurements of price movements stated both absolutely and
as percentages of price levels are given, because authorities have
expressed doubts as to whether the former or the latter might be
expected to remain constant, other things being equal, when price rose.
On the one hand, it is argued that speculators are affected only by the
absolute variations in price, while on the other hand it is contended
that a movement of one "point," say, is less influential when the price
is about 8d. than when it is about 4d. In response to the first view it
might be argued that if speculators are influenced only by the
differences for which they become liable, a "point" movement would have
a somewhat slighter effect on their action, other things being equal,
when price was high, because, supplies being relatively short, each of
them would tend to be engaged in a smaller volume of transactions
measured in quantity of cotton, than when supplies were larger. But the
point need not be discussed further here, since both percentage and
absolute indices of unsteadiness have risen of late years. The
explanation of this change in the direction of indices of steadiness
cannot be proved to consist in any peculiarity in the supplies of recent
years. But the dealing syndicate has probably been of late more common
and more powerful--that is, the syndicate which exists to make profits
out of manipulating the market--and the public has probably been
speculating increasingly. It is plausible, then, to suppose that the
dealing syndicate primarily, and the speculations of the public
secondarily (secondarily, because in all likelihood the effect of its
operation would be much less in